A new study indicates that the tariffs frequently used by U.S. President Donald Trump are causing tangible losses for the American people.

Research from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German think tank, shows that the vast majority of U.S. tariffs—as much as 96%—are borne by American buyers, with only about 4% of the tariff burden falling on foreign exporters.

The researchers explicitly stated that the tariffs' "costs are almost entirely borne by U.S. importers and consumers."

The study, published on January 19th, points out that the $200 billion in additional tariff revenue collected by the U.S. government in 2025 will be "almost entirely paid by Americans."

This conclusion directly contradicts Trump's claims that the tariff costs would not be borne by Americans, but rather by other countries and overseas exporters. Last year, Trump implemented aggressive tariff policies, imposing tariffs on dozens of trading partners, including China, India, and the European Union.

The Kiel Institute study analyzed over 25 million shipping records between January 2024 and November 2025, involving goods worth nearly $4 trillion. Through data analysis, the researchers found that the tariff costs were almost entirely passed on to American consumers.

The study explicitly states that "U.S. import prices have risen almost proportionally with tariffs, while trade volume has shrunk."

These findings corroborate conclusions from other institutions, including studies from Harvard Business School and the Yale Budget Lab, which also confirmed that Americans are paying for the tariffs. Furthermore, analysts at Deutsche Bank and Bank of America publicly stated last year that the American people are the true bearers of the tariff costs.

The Kiel Institute study further explains that U.S. importers and wholesalers are the first to feel the impact of the tariff costs, followed by manufacturers and retailers. These market players have to choose between absorbing the tariff costs themselves or passing them on to end consumers. Ultimately, American consumers will face increased prices, both for imported goods and for domestically manufactured products that use foreign raw materials. The researchers also found a decrease in the total supply of domestically produced goods in the U.S.

Despite these clear findings, Trump continues to use tariffs as a policy tool. On January 17, he stated that he would impose additional tariffs on Denmark and other European countries unless they agreed to transfer Greenland to the United States.

It is worth noting that several of Trump's tariff policies may be overturned. The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to soon issue a final ruling on the legality of a series of tariffs implemented by Trump under national security emergency laws. Trump had previously claimed that if these tariffs were overturned, the United States would be "finished."